World Cup 2026 · prediction-market model

Model vs Market

dry-run
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$10 / position

Tournament bracket — projected the draw's two halves converging on the final · each slot's most-likely team + the field · click to trade

Knockout — who advances model vs market · P(advances), incl. extra time & penalties

Knockout — regulation result (90 min) model vs market · home / draw / away at full time (draw = level after 90, then ET/pens)

Title odds — model vs market each team's % to reach each round · Monte-Carlo on live FIFA ratings vs Kalshi reach-round futures · click to trade

Group stage final · closing line vs result — model vs market on every group game played

Paper P&L $1,000 notional per position · simulated, illustrative sizing

Positions

Did the model call it? every pre-kickoff prediction, graded against the result